Statistics and the Ecological Fallacy

I will admit that I was DREADING statistics.  I have never taken a statistics course.  The pre-cursor course was so much information in such a short period of time, that I knew I wasn’t able to absorb it all, and I was pretty sure my head was going to blow-up.  So, heading into this course, I was expecting total brain annihilation.

But hey, I actually really enjoyed tonight’s class.  The homework wasn’t too bad.  The information was easy to follow.  And he talked about something I have never heard of before. . .ecological fallacy!

Here it is in short – and don’t trust me because I just learned about it – but it is when we see a state-wide (or large-group) average, and then make assumptions about individuals in that state (or group) that end up being false.

For example, (again – do NOT quote this as accurate) states where there are large numbers of immigrants have higher literacy rates.  Some interpret this to mean that immigrants actually have a better grasp of the English language than native speakers.  *I have actually heard this quote in a training for ESL students, so I know people have done this.*  So you see, they took a state statistic, and then made assumptions about the individuals within that state.  However, a closer look at the data revealed that the immigrants did NOT have higher literacy rates (not to say no immigrants do.  Again, we are talking averages.  Don’t make an ecological fallacy!).  It would appear that states with higher literacy rates have more jobs and attract immigrant populations to the jobs.
I found this whole concept absolutely interesting!  Something to chew on.  Which makes me think again about all those red and blue states I see during election season. . .

-Ted Murcray

1 Response to “Statistics and the Ecological Fallacy”


  1. 1 Hannah Anderson July 18, 2009 at 6:42 pm

    I’m sure you have experienced the same type of sterotyping as a native Californian, moving to middle Tennessee. I had a hard adjustment coming here. It was so weird to me how people would wave at me from their cars as I’m walking down the street. :) I would love to talk to you, old friend.


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